Escalation, Proxy, and the Defence of Ukraine – The Politics of Escalation
BY RICHARD MARTIN
Since the first days of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has wielded the threat of “escalation” as a weapon. Every new step of Western support for Ukraine, whether artillery, tanks, air defence, missiles, has been met with threats of nuclear escalation. The intended effect is clear: sow fear and hesitation in NATO populations.
Too often, the term “escalation” is treated as if it described an iron law of conflict. As though supplying Ukraine with weapons automatically pushes the world up a ladder toward catastrophe. But this is not how war works. There is no escalator dragging nations upward against their will. Every so-called escalation is the result of human decision. Leaders weigh costs, risks, and interests. They can choose restraint as much as action.
The Cold War itself is proof. For decades, Soviet and Western militaries engaged in constant contact, naval standoffs, aerial intercepts, and other crises. The risks of miscalculation were real, yet restraint prevailed. Crises were managed, not sleepwalked through. Canada, through NORAD, NATO and the UN, played a direct role in this long record of prudence.
To speak of escalation as inevitable is to surrender agency. Worse, it plays directly into Russia’s strategy of nuclear blackmail. Canadians, like our allies, have lived under this shadow before. We should know better than to be cowed by it now.
THE MYTH OF PROXY
A second concept, proxy war, is equally corrosive. In some circles, particularly American commentariat, the idea is pushed that Ukraine is merely fighting on behalf of others. In this view, the war is not about Ukraine’s independence but about NATO, Washington, or the arms industry.
This is a dangerous distortion. Ukraine is not a pawn. It is a sovereign state fighting for its survival against an unprovoked invasion. While it depends on Western support, it acts according to its own interests, culture, and history. To call Ukraine a proxy is to erase the reality that Ukrainians are dying for their own freedom and territorial integrity.
Canada has, to its credit, largely avoided this language. Ottawa has been consistent and loyal in its support, militarily, financially, and diplomatically. Public opinion in Canada has backed this course, with polls showing strong majority support for aiding Ukraine and a recognition that Canada must play its part in defending democracy abroad. Canadians understand that this is not a distant “proxy war.” It is a fight that goes to the heart of the international system we rely on for our own security and prosperity.
This public support extends beyond Ukraine. In recent years, Canadians have become more willing to see investments in our own defence as necessary, whether through NORAD modernization, NATO deployments in Eastern Europe, or overdue commitments to equipment and infrastructure. Canadians may debate details, but the broad consensus is clear: Russia’s aggression is a threat to all, and standing firm through NATO and the multilateral system is in Canada’s national interest.
A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE
The concepts of escalation and proxy may look different, but they share the same flaw: they deny agency.
• Escalation imagines war as mechanical, stripping away choice and responsibility.
• Proxy imagines smaller nations as puppets, erasing their independence.
Both undermine strategic clarity. And both are deeply at odds with Canadian values. Canada’s defence and foreign policy is rooted in multilateralism, in support for allies, and in respect for sovereignty. We cannot afford the fatalism these terms imply.
When commentators suggest that Ukraine is fighting “for us,” they miss the truth: Ukraine is fighting with us, for principles we also rely on. When Russia brandishes nuclear threats, the right response is not to freeze in fear but to remember that deterrence and restraint were managed under far greater danger during the Cold War.
CONCLUSION
Canada has stood by Ukraine because it is the right thing to do, for Ukraine, for Europe, and for the rules-based order that protects us too. Canadians understand this, which is why support for Ukraine, for NATO, and for strengthening our own military has been steady. If we accept the logic of escalation, we grant Russia a veto over our choices. If we accept the myth of proxy, we deny Ukrainians the dignity of their struggle.
Wars are not escalators, and nations are not pawns. Each decision is a choice. Each nation has its own interests. For Canada, clarity on this point is not just academic, it is the foundation of a coherent, principled defence posture, and it reflects the will of Canadians themselves.
Richard Martin is Founder and President of Alcera Consulting Inc. Visit www.alcera.ca for more information. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect a CDR editorial position.
